EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center|It’s a fool’s errand to predict US men’s gymnastics team for Paris. Let’s do it anyway!

FORT WORTH,EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center Texas — Given the selection procedures for the U.S. men’s gymnastics team practically require a Ph.D. in math to understand, and are heavily dependent upon results at the Olympic trials later this month, predicting who is going to the Paris Games is something of a fool’s errand.

But we’re going to do it anyway!

The short version of the selection procedures is the trials winner locks a spot on the Paris squad, so long as he’s also in the top three on three or more events. U.S. champion Brody Malone was close to that at nationals, finishing first on high bar, second on still rings, fourth on pommel horse and fifth on parallel bars last weekend.

Even if he doesn’t have those three top-threes, however, Malone is all but assured of going to Paris. He’s less than a year removed from his third surgery to repair a gruesome knee injury and only decided a few weeks ago to do the all-around here, yet he won his third title easily.

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Malone has had success internationally, too, finishing fourth in the all-around at the world championships in 2022, the same year he won the title on high bar.

As for the other four spots …

The selection procedures require the team to be picked based on who would give the Americans the best scores in both qualifying, when teams can drop their lowest score on each event, and finals, where three gymnasts compete on each event and every score is counted. There’s no scenario in which Malone wouldn’t be at the top of both of those lists. In fact, in team finals, he’d probably contribute on every event but floor exercise, and maybe vault.

Fred Richard and Khoi Young, who were second and third to Malone at nationals, can probably start packing, too.

Richard, the bronze medalist in the all-around at last year’s world championships, would be the U.S. anchor on floor and could also contribute on high bar and still rings.

Young is actually good on pommel horse — long the bane of existence for the U.S. men — and was the silver medalist on it at last year’s world championships. He could anchor vault, as well, having won a silver in that event, too, and could give the Americans a third big score on parallel bars.

Yul Moldauer puts up big numbers on parallel bars and floor exercise, and could contribute on vault and rings, too.

If you’ve been crunching the numbers, you see there’s still a hole to fill on floor, pommel horse, vault and high bar. And if you’ve been looking at the scores from nationals, you see that, as things stand now, Paul Juda is the guy for that last spot.

Juda was sixth in the all-around at nationals, a full point behind Shane Wiskus. But look at Juda’s best events, and you see he could provide what the U.S. men still lack.

• His 14.75 on floor the first night was the second-best score on the event of the entire meet.
• Only Young, Malone and the specialists were better on pommel horse.
• His vault score on Day 2 trailed only Young.
• Juda, Malone and Richard were the only guys to go 14 or better on high bar, Juda doing it on the second night.

There are other options, of course. The U.S. men could take specialists Stephen Nedoroscik or Patrick Hoopes to get another big score on pommel horse, their weakest event in the three-up, three-count team final format. But neither Nedoroscik nor Hoopes do other events, meaning the Americans would be shoring up one event at the expense of three others.

And if any of the other four gymnasts got hurt, the U.S. men’s hopes of winning their first medal since 2008 would take a serious hit.

They could take Wiskus, a Tokyo Olympian whose consistency is one of his greatest strengths. But Wiskus’ best events are places where the U.S. men have other options that, at nationals at least, provide a higher score in the team final. The reasoning is similar for bypassing Cameron Bock and Donnell Whittenburg. Unless someone is going to give you a decisive advantage on at least one event, the Americans are better off taking the guy who can give them coverage on the most events.

Of course, all this could change at Olympic trials. With the Paris Games now less than two months away, however, the team is starting to take shape.

Follow USA TODAY Sports columnist Nancy Armour on social media @nrarmour.